The Cryosphere
www.the-cryosphere.net
1994-0416
1994-0424
2
1
2008
10.5194/tc-2-13-2008
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/2/13/2008/
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/2/13/2008/tc-2-13-2008.html
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/2/13/2008/tc-2-13-2008.pdf
13
21
2008-01-25
Glacier annual balance measurement, forecasting and climate correlations, North Cascades, Washington 1984–2006
M. S. Pelto
mspelto@nichols.edu
Nichols College Dudley, MA 01571, USA
North Cascade glacier annual balance measured on 10 glaciers from 1984–2006
yielded mean annual balance (b<sub><i>a</i></sub>) of −0.54 m/a, and −12.38 m
cumulatively. This is a significant loss for glaciers that average 30–60 m
in thickness, 20–40% of their entire volume. Two observed glaciers, Lewis
Glacier and Spider Glacier, no longer exist.
<br></br>
The b<sub><i>a</i></sub> of North Cascade glaciers is reliably calculated, correlation
coefficient 0.91, using 1 April snowpack water equivalent and ablation
season temperature. Utilizing b<sub><i>a</i></sub> from 10 glaciers 1984–2006 and net
balance (b<sub><i>n</i></sub>) from South Cascade 1960–2005, a set of forecast rules for
glacier mass balance were derived utilizing October–April Pacific Decadal
Oscillation and Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation index values. The
forecast rules provide a correct assessment in 41 of the 46 years for South
Cascade Glacier and 20 of 23 years for NCGCP glaciers. Glacier annual
balance forecasting is an important step for summer water resource
management in glacier runoff dominated stream systems. The forecast for
North Cascade glaciers in 2007 is for a negative b<sub><i>a</i></sub>.
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