The Cryosphere www.the-cryosphere.net 1994-0416 1994-0424 4 2 2010 10.5194/tc-4-191-2010 http://www.the-cryosphere.net/4/191/2010/ http://www.the-cryosphere.net/4/191/2010/tc-4-191-2010.html http://www.the-cryosphere.net/4/191/2010/tc-4-191-2010.pdf 191 213 2010-05-12 Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates R. H. Giesen r.h.giesen@uu.nl J. Oerlemans Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80005, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands Glaciers respond to mass balance changes by adjusting their surface elevation and area. These properties in their turn affect the local and area-averaged mass balance. To incorporate this interdependence in the response of glaciers to climate change, models should include an interactive scheme coupling mass balance and ice dynamics. In this study, a spatially distributed mass balance model, comprising surface energy balance calculations, was coupled to a vertically integrated ice-flow model based on the shallow ice approximation. The coupled model was applied to the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway. The available glacio-meteorological records, mass balance and glacier length change measurements were utilized for model calibration and validation. Forced with meteorological data from nearby synoptic weather stations, the coupled model realistically simulated the observed mass balance and glacier length changes during the 20th century. The mean climate for the period 1961–1990, computed from local meteorological data, was used as a basis to prescribe climate projections for the 21st century at Hardangerjøkulen. For a linear temperature increase of 3 °C from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100, the modelled net mass balance soon becomes negative at all altitudes and Hardangerjøkulen disappears around the year 2100. The projected changes in the other meteorological variables could at most partly compensate for the effect of the projected warming. A\dhalgeirsdottir, G., Jóhannesson, T., Björnsson, H., Pálsson, F., and Sigur\dhsson, O.: Response of Hofjökull and southern Vatnajökull, Iceland, to climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 111, F03001, \doi10.1029/2005JF000388, 2006. Andersen, J L. and Sollid, J L.: Glacial chronology and glacial geomorphology in the marginal zones of the glaciers, Midtdalsbreen and Nigardsbreen, south Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidssk., 25, 1–38, 1971. Andreassen, L M. and Elveh\o y, H.: Volume change – Hardangerj\o kulen, in: Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2000, edited by: Kj\o llmoen, B., NVE~Report~No~2, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 101–102, 2001. Andreassen, L M., Elveh\o y, H., Kj\o llmoen, B., Engeset, R V., and Haakensen, N.: Glacier mass-balance and length variation in Norway, Ann. Glaciol., 42, 317–325, 2005. Arnold, N S., Rees, W G., Hodson, A J., and Kohler, J.: Topographic controls on the surface energy balance of a high Arctic valley glacier, J. Geophys. Res., 111, F02011, \doi10.1029/2005JF000426, 2006. Bahr, D B., Dyurgerov, M., and Meier, M F.: Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps: A lower bound, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03501, \doi10.1029/2008GL036309, 2009. Bjune, A E., Bakke, J., Nesje, A., and Birks, H. J B.: Holocene mean July temperature and winter precipitation in western Norway inferred from palynological and glaciological lake-sediment proxies, The Holocene, 15, 177–189, 2005. Budd, W F., Keage, P L., and Blundy, N A.: Empirical studies of ice sliding, J. Glaciol., 23, 157–170, 1979. De Woul, M. and Hock, R.: Static mass-balance sensitivity of Arctic glaciers and ice caps using a degree-day approach, Ann. Glaciol., 42, 217–224, 2005. Dozier, J. and Frew, J.: Rapid calculation of terrain parameters for radiation modeling from digital elevation data, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 28, 963–969, 1990. Elveh\o y, H., Kohler, J., Engeset, R., and Andreassen, L M.: J\o kullaup fra Demmevatn, NVE~Report~No~17, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 36~pp., 1997. Fægri, K.: Forandringer ved norske breer 1934–35, Bergen Museums Årbok 1935, Naturvidenskapelig rekke~Nr 6, Bergen, Norway, 10~pp., 1936. Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M., and Truffer, M.: A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers, J. Glaciol., 55, 422–430, 2009. Flowers, G E., Marshall, S J., Björnsson, H., and Clarke, G. K C.: Sensitivity of Vatnajökull ice cap hydrology and dynamics to climate warming over the next 2~centuries, J. Geophys. Res., 110, F02011, \doi10.1029/2004JF000200, 2005. Gerbaux, M., Genthon, C., Etchevers, P., Vincent, C., and Dedieu, J P.: Surface mass balance of glaciers in the French Alps: distributed modeling and sensitivity to climate change, J. Glaciol., 51, 561–572, 2005. Giesen, R H.: Surface energy and mass balance at Hardangerjøkulen, southern Norway, Master's thesis, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 2004. Giesen, R H.: The ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in the past, present and future climate, Ph.D thesis, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, available at: http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/dissertations/2009-1104-200130/UUindex.html, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 2009. Giesen, R H., Van den Broeke, M R., Oerlemans, J., and Andreassen, L M.: The surface energy balance in the ablation zone of Midtdalsbreen, a glacier in southern Norway: Interannual variability and the effect of clouds, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D21111, \doi10.1029/2008JD010390, 2008. Giesen, R. H., Andreassen, L. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Oerlemans, J.: Comparison of the meteorology and surface energy balance at Storbreen and Midtdalsbreen, two glaciers in southern Norway, The Cryosphere, 3, 57–74, doi:10.5194/tc-3-57-2009, 2009. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C A., Banks, H., Gregory, J M., Johns, T C., Mitchell, J. F B., and Wood, R A.: The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments, Clim. Dynam., 16, 147–168, 2000. Green, F. H W. and Harding, R J.: The altitudinal gradients of air temperature in southern Norway, Geogr. Ann A, 62, 29–36, 1980. Greuell, W. and Oerlemans, J.: Sensitivity studies with a mass balance model including temperature profile calculations inside the glacier, Z. Gletscherkd. Glazialgeol., 22, 101–124, 1986. Greuell, W., Knap, W H., and Smeets, P C.: Elevational changes in meteorological variables along a midlatitude glacier during summer, J. Geophys. Res., 102, D22, 1997. Hanssen-Bauer, I., Førland, E J., Haugen, J E., and Tveito, O E.: Temperature and precipitation scenarios for Norway: comparison of results from dynamical and empirical downscaling, Clim. Res., 25, 15–27, 2003. Hutter, K.: Theoretical glaciology : material science of ice and the mechanics of glaciers and ice sheets, Reidel, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1983. Huybrechts, P.: The Antarctic ice sheet and environmental change: a three-dimensional modelling study, Reports on polar research, 99, 241~pp., 1992. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group~I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007. Iqbal, M.: An introduction to solar radiation, Academic Press, New York, 1983. Kj\o llmoen, B., Andreassen, L M., Engeset, R V., Elveh\o y, H., Jackson, M., and Giesen, R H.: Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2005, NVE~Report~No~2, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 91~pp., 2006. Kj\o llmoen, B., Andreassen, L M., Elveh\o y, H., Jackson, M., Giesen, R H., and Winkler, S.: Glaciological investigations in Norway in 2007, NVE~Report~No~3, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 91~pp., 2008. Klok, E J. and Oerlemans, J.: Model study of the spatial distribution of the energy and mass balance of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 48, 505–518, 2002. Klok, E J., Greuell, W., and Oerlemans, J.: Temporal and spatial variation of the surface albedo of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland, as derived from 12~Landsat images, J. Glaciol., 49, 491–502, 2003. Konzelmann, T., van de Wal, R. S W., Greuell, W., Bintanja, R., Henneken, E. A C., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Parameterization of global and longwave incoming radiation for the Greenland Ice Sheet, Global Planet. Change, 9, 143–164, 1994. Laumann, T.: Sn\o, firn, is – en unders\o kelse p\aa Hardangerj\o kulen, Master's thesis, University of Oslo, 1972. Le Meur, E., Gerbaux, M., Schäfer, M., and Vincent, C.: Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st~Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 261, 367–374, 2007. Leysinger Vieli, G. J.-M C. and Gudmundsson, G H.: On estimating length fluctuations of glaciers caused by changes in climatic forcing, J. Geophys. Res., 109, F01007, \doi10.1029/2003JF000027, 2004. Liestøl, O.: Glacier dammed lakes in Norway, Norsk Geogr. Tidssk., 15, 122–149, 1956. Meier, M F., Dyurgerov, M B., Rick, U K., O'Neel, S., Pfeffer, W T., Anderson, R S., Anderson, S P., and Glazovsky, A F.: Glaciers dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st~century, Science, 317, 1064–1067, \doi10.1126/science.1143906, 2007. Meyers, T P. and Dale, R F.: Predicting daily insolation with hourly cloud height and coverage, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 22, 537–545, 1983. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Raihi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Dadi, Z.: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2000. Nesje, A. and Dahl, S O.: Holocene glacier variations of Bl\aa isen, Hardangerj\o kulen, central southern Norway, Quaternary Res., 35, 25–40, 1991. Nesje, A., Dahl, S O., L\o vlie, R., and Sulebak, J R.: Holocene glacier activity at the southwestern part of Hardangerj\o kulen, central-southern Norway: evidence from lacustrine sediments, The Holocene, 4, 377–382, 1994. Nesje, A., Bakke, J., Dahl, S O., Lie, Ø., and Matthews, J A.: Norwegian mountain glaciers in the past, present and future, Global Planet. Change, 60, 10–27, 2008. Oerlemans, J.: A flowline model for Nigardsbreen, Norway: projection of future glacier length based on dynamic calibration with the historic record, Ann. Glaciol., 24, 382–389, 1997. Oerlemans, J.: Glaciers and Climate Change, Balkema, Lisse, 2001. Oerlemans, J. and Grisogono, B.: Glacier winds and parameterisation of the related surface heat fluxes, Tellus~A, 54, 440–452, 2002. Oerlemans, J. and Knap, W H.: A 1~year record of global radiation and albedo in the ablation zone of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 44, 231–238, 1998. Oerlemans, J. and Reichert, B K.: Relating glacier mass balance to meteorological data by using a seasonal sensitivity characteristic, J. Glaciol., 46, 1–6, 2000. Oerlemans, J., Giesen, R H., and Van den Broeke, M R.: Retreating alpine glaciers: increased melt rates due to accumulation of dust (Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland), J. Glaciol., 55, 729–736, 2009. \O sten, K.: Radio-ekko unders\o kelser p\aa Midtdalsbreen, S\o r-Norge, Master's thesis, Geographical Institute, University of Oslo, 1998. Østrem, G., Dale Selvig, K., and Tandberg, K.: Atlas over breer i Sør-Norge (Atlas of glaciers in south Norway), Meddelelser fra Hydrologisk Avdeling~61, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 248~pp., 1988. Pytte, R. and Liest\o l, O.: Glasio-hydrologiske undersøkelser i Norge 1965 (Glacio-hydrological investigations in Norway 1965), NVE Annual Report, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, 64~pp., 1966. Räisänen, J., Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Döscher, R., Graham, L P., Jones, C., Meier, H. E M., Samuelsson, P., and Willén, U.: European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 22, 13–31, 2004. Rasmussen, L A. and Conway, H.: Influence of upper-air conditions on glaciers in Scandinavia, Ann. Glaciol., 42, 402–408, 2005. Roeckner, E., Bengtsson, L., Feichter, J., Lelieveld, J., and Rodhe, H.: Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle, J. Climate, 12, 3004–3032, 1999. Van den Berg, J., Van de Wal, R. S W., and Oerlemans, J.: A mass balance model for the Eurasian Ice Sheet for the last 120,000~years, Global Planet. Change, 61, 194–208, 2008.