TC The Cryosphere TC 1994-0424 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/tc-5-67-2011 Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century Etzelmüller B. 1 Schuler T. V. 1 Isaksen K. 2 Christiansen H. H. 1 3 Farbrot H. 1 Benestad R. 2 Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Norway, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway Arctic Geology Department, The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), P.O. Box 156, 9171 Longyearbyen, Norway 04 02 2011 5 1 67 79 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.the-cryosphere.net/5/67/2011/tc-5-67-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.the-cryosphere.net/5/67/2011/tc-5-67-2011.pdf

Variations in ground thermal conditions in Svalbard were studied based on measurements and modelling. Ground temperature data from boreholes were used to calibrate a transient heat flow model describing depth and time variations in temperatures. The model was subsequently forced with historical surface air temperature records and possible future temperatures downscaled from multiple global climate models. We discuss ground temperature development since the early 20th century, and the thermal responses in relation to ground characteristics and snow cover. The modelled ground temperatures show a gradual increase between 1912 and 2010, by about 1.5 °C to 2 °C at 20 m depth. The active layer thickness (ALT) is modelled to have increased slightly, with the rate of increase depending on water content of the near-surface layers. The used scenario runs predict a significant increase in ground temperatures and an increase of ALT depending on soil characteristics.

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