Journal cover Journal topic
The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
The Cryosphere, 6, 713-727, 2012
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/713/2012/
doi:10.5194/tc-6-713-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Jul 2012
Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100
M. Huss Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland
*Invited contribution by M. Huss, recipient of the EGU Young Scientist Outstanding Poster Paper (YSOPP) Award 2010.
Abstract. This study addresses the extrapolation of in-situ glacier mass balance measurements to the mountain-range scale and aims at deriving time series of area-averaged mass balance and ice volume change for all glaciers in the European Alps for the period 1900–2100. Long-term mass balance series for 50 Swiss glaciers based on a combination of field data and modelling, and WGMS data for glaciers in Austria, France and Italy are used. A complete glacier inventory is available for the year 2003. Mass balance extrapolation is performed based on (1) arithmetic averaging, (2) glacier hypsometry, and (3) multiple regression. Given a sufficient number of data series, multiple regression with variables describing glacier geometry performs best in reproducing observed spatial mass balance variability. Future mass changes are calculated by driving a combined model for mass balance and glacier geometry with GCM ensembles based on four emission scenarios. Mean glacier mass balance in the European Alps is −0.31 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 in 1900–2011, and −1 m w.e. a−1 over the last decade. Total ice volume change since 1900 is −96 ± 13 km3; annual values vary between −5.9 km3 (1947) and +3.9 km3 (1977). Mean mass balances are expected to be around −1.3 m w.e. a−1 by 2050. Model results indicate a glacier area reduction of 4–18% relative to 2003 for the end of the 21st century.

Citation: Huss, M.: Extrapolating glacier mass balance to the mountain-range scale: the European Alps 1900–2100, The Cryosphere, 6, 713-727, doi:10.5194/tc-6-713-2012, 2012.
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