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Volume 10, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 10, 1191–1200, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 10, 1191–1200, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1191-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 03 Jun 2016

Research article | 03 Jun 2016

Time forecast of a break-off event from a hanging glacier

Jérome Faillettaz et al.
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Cited articles  
Christen, M., Kowalski, J., and Bartelt, P.: RAMMS: Numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 63, 1–14, 2010.
Faillettaz, J., Pralong, A., Funk, M., and Deichmann, N.: Evidence of log-periodic oscillations and increasing icequake activity during the breaking-off of large ice masses, J. Glaciol., 54, 725–737, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214308786570845, 2008.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Icequakes coupled with surface displacements for predicting glacier break-off, J. Glaciol., 57, 453–460, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311796905668, 2011a.
Faillettaz, J., Sornette, D., and Funk, M.: Numerical modeling of a gravity-driven instability of a cold hanging glacier: reanalysis of the 1895 break-off of Altelsgletscher, Switzerland, J. Glaciol., 57, 817–831, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214311798043852, 2011b.
Faillettaz, J., Funk, M., and Sornette, D.: Instabilities on Alpine temperate glaciers: new insights arising from the numerical modelling of Allalingletscher (Valais, Switzerland), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2977–2991, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2977-2012, 2012.
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Short summary
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance thanks to very accurate surface displacement measurements taken right up to the final event. This break-off event also confirmed that surface displacements experience a power law acceleration along with superimposed log-periodic oscillations prior to the final rupture. This paper describes the methods used to achieve a satisfactory time forecast in real time.
The break-off of a cold hanging glacier could be successfully predicted 10 days in advance...
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