Articles | Volume 10, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-341-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 11 Feb 2016
Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
A. L. Atchley
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
S. L. Painter
Climate Change Science Institute, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
E. T. Coon
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
C. J. Wilson
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
V. E. Romanovsky
Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA
J. C. Rowland
Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA
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Cited
36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2023WR034644
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al. 10.1029/2021WR029911
- Guidelines for Publicly Archiving Terrestrial Model Data to Enhance Usability, Intercomparison, and Synthesis M. Simmonds et al. 10.5334/dsj-2022-003
- Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw S. Painter et al. 10.1073/pnas.2212171120
- An effective medium theory-based unified model for estimating thermal conductivity of unfrozen and frozen soils H. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.107942
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape E. Jafarov et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aadd30
- Evaluating temporal controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in an Arctic tundra environment: An entropy-based approach B. Arora et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.251
- Response of peat-rich permafrost to a warming climate on the northeast Tibetan Plateau R. Du et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108681
- Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost—A Review M. Walvoord & B. Kurylyk 10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010
- GlobSim (v1.0): deriving meteorological time series for point locations from multiple global reanalyses B. Cao et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4661-2019
- Estimation of subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities of polygonal tundra by coupled inversion of electrical resistivity, temperature, and moisture content data E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-14-77-2020
- Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska C. Abolt et al. 10.1029/2019JF005349
- Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0 G. Bisht et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018
- Estimating Seasonally Frozen Ground Depth From Historical Climate Data and Site Measurements Using a Bayesian Model Y. Qin et al. 10.1029/2017WR022185
- Empirical Models for Predicting Water and Heat Flow Properties of Permafrost Soils M. O'Connor et al. 10.1029/2020GL087646
- New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles D. Harp et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape J. Kumar et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016
- A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region M. Bui et al. 10.3390/geosciences10100401
- Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons C. Abolt et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018
- Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof‐of‐concept simulations S. Painter et al. 10.1002/2015WR018427
- Soil moisture redistribution and its effect on inter-annual active layer temperature and thickness variations in a dry loess terrace in Adventdalen, Svalbard C. Schuh et al. 10.5194/tc-11-635-2017
- Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137538
- Design of a fractional-order atmospheric model via a class of ACT-like chaotic system and its sliding mode chaos control M. Naik et al. 10.1063/5.0130403
- Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage R. Grant et al. 10.1029/2018JG004644
- How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska? X. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168697
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106844
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
- Soil Physical, Hydraulic, and Thermal Properties in Interior Alaska, USA: Implications for Hydrologic Response to Thawing Permafrost Conditions B. Ebel et al. 10.1029/2018WR023673
- The influence of snow cover, air temperature, and groundwater flow on the active-layer thermal regime of Arctic hillslopes drained by water tracks C. Rushlow et al. 10.1007/s10040-020-02166-2
- Guidelines for cold‐regions groundwater numerical modeling P. Lamontagne‐Hallé et al. 10.1002/wat2.1467
- Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub‐Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements A. Garnello et al. 10.1029/2020JG006218
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Evaluating integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology models in ATS (v0.88) against observations from a polygonal tundra site A. Jan et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-2259-2020
- Evaluation of Parameterization Schemes for Matric Potential in Frozen Soil in Land Surface Models: A Modeling Perspective Y. Zhao et al. 10.1029/2023WR034644
- Importance of Parameter and Climate Data Uncertainty for Future Changes in Boreal Hydrology A. Marshall et al. 10.1029/2021WR029911
- Guidelines for Publicly Archiving Terrestrial Model Data to Enhance Usability, Intercomparison, and Synthesis M. Simmonds et al. 10.5334/dsj-2022-003
- Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw S. Painter et al. 10.1073/pnas.2212171120
- An effective medium theory-based unified model for estimating thermal conductivity of unfrozen and frozen soils H. Ji et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.107942
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Modeling the role of preferential snow accumulation in through talik development and hillslope groundwater flow in a transitional permafrost landscape E. Jafarov et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aadd30
- Evaluating temporal controls on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in an Arctic tundra environment: An entropy-based approach B. Arora et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.251
- Response of peat-rich permafrost to a warming climate on the northeast Tibetan Plateau R. Du et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108681
- Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost—A Review M. Walvoord & B. Kurylyk 10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010
- GlobSim (v1.0): deriving meteorological time series for point locations from multiple global reanalyses B. Cao et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4661-2019
- Estimation of subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities of polygonal tundra by coupled inversion of electrical resistivity, temperature, and moisture content data E. Jafarov et al. 10.5194/tc-14-77-2020
- Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska C. Abolt et al. 10.1029/2019JF005349
- Impacts of microtopographic snow redistribution and lateral subsurface processes on hydrologic and thermal states in an Arctic polygonal ground ecosystem: a case study using ELM-3D v1.0 G. Bisht et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-61-2018
- Estimating Seasonally Frozen Ground Depth From Historical Climate Data and Site Measurements Using a Bayesian Model Y. Qin et al. 10.1029/2017WR022185
- Empirical Models for Predicting Water and Heat Flow Properties of Permafrost Soils M. O'Connor et al. 10.1029/2020GL087646
- New insights into the drainage of inundated ice-wedge polygons using fundamental hydrologic principles D. Harp et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4005-2021
- Towards the incorporation of hydrogeochemistry into the modelling of permafrost environments: a review of recent recommendations, considerations, and literature C. Lapalme et al. 10.1139/as-2022-0038
- Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer B. Groenke et al. 10.5194/tc-17-3505-2023
- Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape J. Kumar et al. 10.5194/tc-10-2241-2016
- A Review of Hydrological Models Applied in the Permafrost-Dominated Arctic Region M. Bui et al. 10.3390/geosciences10100401
- Microtopographic control on the ground thermal regime in ice wedge polygons C. Abolt et al. 10.5194/tc-12-1957-2018
- Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof‐of‐concept simulations S. Painter et al. 10.1002/2015WR018427
- Soil moisture redistribution and its effect on inter-annual active layer temperature and thickness variations in a dry loess terrace in Adventdalen, Svalbard C. Schuh et al. 10.5194/tc-11-635-2017
- Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137538
- Design of a fractional-order atmospheric model via a class of ACT-like chaotic system and its sliding mode chaos control M. Naik et al. 10.1063/5.0130403
- Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 1. Rates of Permafrost Thaw Depend on Changes in Vegetation and Drainage R. Grant et al. 10.1029/2018JG004644
- How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqiaġvik, Alaska? X. Huang et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168697
- Permafrost dynamics and their hydrologic impacts over the Russian Arctic drainage basin K. Wang et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.03.014
- Water and heat coupling processes and its simulation in frozen soils: Current status and future research directions G. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2022.106844
- Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams Y. Sjöberg et al. 10.1029/2020WR027463
4 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Soil Physical, Hydraulic, and Thermal Properties in Interior Alaska, USA: Implications for Hydrologic Response to Thawing Permafrost Conditions B. Ebel et al. 10.1029/2018WR023673
- The influence of snow cover, air temperature, and groundwater flow on the active-layer thermal regime of Arctic hillslopes drained by water tracks C. Rushlow et al. 10.1007/s10040-020-02166-2
- Guidelines for cold‐regions groundwater numerical modeling P. Lamontagne‐Hallé et al. 10.1002/wat2.1467
- Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub‐Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements A. Garnello et al. 10.1029/2020JG006218
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Short summary
This paper investigates the uncertainty associated with permafrost thaw projections at an intensively monitored site. Permafrost thaw projections are simulated using a thermal hydrology model forced by a worst-case carbon emission scenario. The uncertainties associated with active layer depth, saturation state, thermal regime, and thaw duration are quantified and compared with the effects of climate model uncertainty on permafrost thaw projections.
This paper investigates the uncertainty associated with permafrost thaw projections at an...
