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Volume 12, issue 6
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 12, 2005–2020, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2005-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Jun 2018

Research article | 15 Jun 2018

Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

Takuya Nakanowatari et al.

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Cited articles

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Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Roeckner, E.: Storm Tracks and Climate Change, J. Climate, 19, 3518–3543, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3815.1, 2006.
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. and Bitz, C. M.: Characteristics of Arctic Sea-Ice Thickness Variability in GCMs, J. Climate 27, 8244–8258, 2014.
Bushuk, M., Msadek, R., Winton, M., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R., Rosati, A., and Yang, X.: Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice onseasonal timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 4953–4964, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073155, 2017.
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Short summary
Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was examined, based on TOPAZ4 forecast data. Statistical examination indicates that the estimate drops abruptly at 4 days, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations such as an Arctic cyclone. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which represents most of the remaining prediction.
Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness in the East Siberian Sea was...
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