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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 12, issue 10 | Copyright
The Cryosphere, 12, 3355-3360, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3355-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Brief communication 23 Oct 2018

Brief communication | 23 Oct 2018

Brief communication: Solar radiation management not as effective as CO2 mitigation for Arctic sea ice loss in hitting the 1.5 and 2 °C COP climate targets

Jeff K. Ridley and Edward W. Blockley Jeff K. Ridley and Edward W. Blockley
  • Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

Abstract. An assessment of the risks of a seasonally ice-free Arctic at 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial levels is undertaken using model simulations with solar radiation management to achieve the desired temperatures. An ensemble of the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-ES uses solar radiation management (SRM) to achieve the desired global mean temperatures. It is found that the risk for a seasonally ice-free Arctic is reduced for a target temperature for global warming of 1.5°C (0.1%) compared to 2.0°C (42%), in general agreement with other methodologies. The SRM produced more ice loss, for a specified global temperature, than for CO2 mitigation scenarios, as SRM produces a higher polar amplification.

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The climate change conference held in Paris in 2016 made a commitment to limiting global-mean warming since the pre-industrial era to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5 °C. Since global warming is already at 1 °C, the 1.5 °C can only be achieved at considerable cost. It is thus important to assess the risks associated with the higher target. This paper shows that the decline of Arctic sea ice, and associated impacts, can only be halted with the 1.5 °C target.
The climate change conference held in Paris in 2016 made a commitment to limiting global-mean...
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