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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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TC | Volume 12, issue 11
The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 12, 3419–3438, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3419-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 30 Oct 2018

Research article | 30 Oct 2018

Improving Met Office seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice using assimilation of CryoSat-2 thickness

Edward W. Blockley and K. Andrew Peterson
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Cited articles  
Allard, R. A., Farrell, S. L., Hebert, D. A., Johnston, W. F., Li, L., Kurtz, N. T., Phelps, M. W., Posey, P. G., Tilling, R., Ridout, A., and Wallcraft, A. J.: Utilizing CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness to initialize a coupled ice–ocean modeling system, Adv. Space Res., 62, 1265–1280, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2017.12.030, 2018. 
Balmaseda, M. A., Ferranti, L., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T. N.: Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136: 1655-1664, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661, 2010. 
Bauer, P., Magnusson, L., Thépaut, J.-N., and Hamill, T. M.: Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 583–596, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2449, 2016. 
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and DeWeaver, E.: Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations, J. Climate, 24, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3775.1, 2011. 
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Short summary
Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to society but the predictive capability of forecasting systems is low. Several studies suggest initialization of sea-ice thickness (SIT) could improve the skill of seasonal prediction systems. Here for the first time we test the impact of SIT initialization in the Met Office's GloSea coupled prediction system using CryoSat-2 data. We show significant improvements to Arctic extent and ice edge location.
Arctic sea-ice prediction on seasonal time scales is becoming increasingly more relevant to...
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