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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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TC | Volume 13, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 13, 1073–1088, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1073-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 13, 1073–1088, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1073-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 Apr 2019

Research article | 03 Apr 2019

Benchmark seasonal prediction skill estimates based on regional indices

John E. Walsh et al.
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Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner on behalf of the Authors (04 Jan 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Jan 2019) by John Yackel
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (23 Jan 2019)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (03 Feb 2019)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (04 Feb 2019) by John Yackel
AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (21 Feb 2019)  Author's response
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Feb 2019) by John Yackel
ED: Publish as is (11 Mar 2019) by John Yackel
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
Persistence-based statistical forecasts of a Beaufort Sea ice severity index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical skill out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the trends are removed from the data. This finding is consistent with the notion of a springtime “predictability barrier” that has been found in sea ice forecasts based on more sophisticated methods.
Persistence-based statistical forecasts of a Beaufort Sea ice severity index as well as...
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