Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
24 Apr 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 24 Apr 2019
| 24 Apr 2019
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
Kevin Bulthuis
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Maarten Arnst
Computational and Stochastic Modeling, Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Université de Liège, Allée de la Découverte 9, Quartier Polytech 1, 4000 Liège, Belgium
Sainan Sun
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
Frank Pattyn
Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
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Cited
51 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Contrasting Response of West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment V. Coulon et al. 10.1029/2020JF006003
- On the Multiscale Oceanic Heat Transports Toward the Bases of the Antarctic Ice Shelves Z. Wang et al. 10.34133/olar.0010
- A Multifidelity Quantile-Based Approach for Confidence Sets of Random Excursion Sets with Application to Ice-Sheet Dynamics K. Bulthuis et al. 10.1137/19M1280466
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Tides modulate crevasse opening prior to a major calving event at Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland E. van Dongen et al. 10.1017/jog.2019.89
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- Inferring the Basal Friction Law From Long Term Changes of Glacier Length, Thickness and Velocity on an Alpine Glacier A. Gilbert et al. 10.1029/2023GL104503
- Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges E. Hanna et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976
- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3390/w11071507
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- The evolution of UK sea-level projections J. Weeks et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/acc020
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- The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing E. Kazmierczak et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
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- Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand R. Levy et al. 10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743
- Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier B. Castleman et al. 10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2022JF006914
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- Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets J. Carter et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022
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- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
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- The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet F. Pattyn & M. Morlighem 10.1126/science.aaz5487
- Thermal controls on ice stream shear margins P. Hunter et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.118
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- Inferring the basal sliding coefficient field for the Stokes ice sheet model under rheological uncertainty O. Babaniyi et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.41
- Updates on Model Hierarchies for Understanding and Simulating the Climate System: A Focus on Data‐Informed Methods and Climate Change Impacts L. Mansfield et al. 10.1029/2023MS003715
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. 10.1029/2022EF002751
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- Prediction of Snowmelt Days Using Binary Logistic Regression in the Umbria-Marche Apennines (Central Italy) M. Gentilucci & G. Pambianchi 10.3390/w14091495
- A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling Q. He et al. 10.1016/j.jcp.2023.112428
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
- Could the Last Interglacial Constrain Projections of Future Antarctic Ice Mass Loss and Sea‐Level Rise? D. Gilford et al. 10.1029/2019JF005418
50 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physical processes and feedbacks obscuring the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet D. Li 10.1016/j.geogeo.2022.100084
- Contrasting Response of West and East Antarctic Ice Sheets to Glacial Isostatic Adjustment V. Coulon et al. 10.1029/2020JF006003
- On the Multiscale Oceanic Heat Transports Toward the Bases of the Antarctic Ice Shelves Z. Wang et al. 10.34133/olar.0010
- A Multifidelity Quantile-Based Approach for Confidence Sets of Random Excursion Sets with Application to Ice-Sheet Dynamics K. Bulthuis et al. 10.1137/19M1280466
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Tides modulate crevasse opening prior to a major calving event at Bowdoin Glacier, Northwest Greenland E. van Dongen et al. 10.1017/jog.2019.89
- Cosmogenic nuclide dating of two stacked ice masses: Ong Valley, Antarctica M. Bergelin et al. 10.5194/tc-16-2793-2022
- Thermal modeling and uncertainty quantification of tool for automated garment assembly N. Castrillon et al. 10.1007/s00466-022-02215-5
- Stochastic Surrogate Model for Meteotsunami Early Warning System in the Eastern Adriatic Sea C. Denamiel et al. 10.1029/2019JC015574
- Numerical Modeling Shows Increased Fracturing Due to Melt-Undercutting Prior to Major Calving at Bowdoin Glacier E. van Dongen et al. 10.3389/feart.2020.00253
- Inferring the Basal Friction Law From Long Term Changes of Glacier Length, Thickness and Velocity on an Alpine Glacier A. Gilbert et al. 10.1029/2023GL104503
- Mass balance of the ice sheets and glaciers – Progress since AR5 and challenges E. Hanna et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102976
- Low-End Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections G. Le Cozannet et al. 10.3390/w11071507
- Parameter sensitivity analysis of dynamic ice sheet models – numerical computations G. Cheng & P. Lötstedt 10.5194/tc-14-673-2020
- The evolution of UK sea-level projections J. Weeks et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/acc020
- Brief communication: A roadmap towards credible projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level A. Aschwanden et al. 10.5194/tc-15-5705-2021
- The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century D. Lowry et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00289-2
- Quantifying the potential future contribution to global mean sea level from the Filchner–Ronne basin, Antarctica E. Hill et al. 10.5194/tc-15-4675-2021
- Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing E. Kazmierczak et al. 10.5194/tc-16-4537-2022
- The GRISLI-LSCE contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) – Part 2: Projections of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution by the end of the 21st century A. Quiquet & C. Dumas 10.5194/tc-15-1031-2021
- Marine ice sheet instability amplifies and skews uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise A. Robel et al. 10.1073/pnas.1904822116
- Ocean-forced evolution of the Amundsen Sea catchment, West Antarctica, by 2100 A. Alevropoulos-Borrill et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1245-2020
- Mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate C. Chambers et al. 10.1017/jog.2021.124
- Melting ice and rising seas – connecting projected change in Antarctica’s ice sheets to communities in Aotearoa New Zealand R. Levy et al. 10.1080/03036758.2023.2232743
- Derivation of bedrock topography measurement requirements for the reduction of uncertainty in ice-sheet model projections of Thwaites Glacier B. Castleman et al. 10.5194/tc-16-761-2022
- Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century I. Nias et al. 10.1029/2022JF006914
- Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties M. Berdahl et al. 10.5194/tc-15-2683-2021
- Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets J. Carter et al. 10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022
- Seasonal Tidewater Glacier Terminus Oscillations Bias Multi‐Decadal Projections of Ice Mass Change D. Felikson et al. 10.1029/2021JF006249
- ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century H. Seroussi et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
- Implementation of a Gaussian Markov random field sampler for forward uncertainty quantification in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.19 K. Bulthuis & E. Larour 10.5194/gmd-15-1195-2022
- Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model J. Park et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
- Viscous Effects in the Solid Earth Response to Modern Antarctic Ice Mass Flux: Implications for Geodetic Studies of WAIS Stability in a Warming World E. Powell et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0479.1
- Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters T. Zolles & A. Born 10.5194/tc-15-2917-2021
- Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP) S. Sun et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.67
- The Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model v1.0 (StISSM v1.0) V. Verjans et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8269-2022
- Illustrative Multi‐Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea‐Level Rise and Their Application F. Turner et al. 10.1029/2023EF003550
- The evolution of 21st century sea-level projections from IPCC AR5 to AR6 and beyond A. Slangen et al. 10.1017/cft.2022.8
- The uncertain future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet F. Pattyn & M. Morlighem 10.1126/science.aaz5487
- Thermal controls on ice stream shear margins P. Hunter et al. 10.1017/jog.2020.118
- Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model V. Coulon et al. 10.5194/tc-18-653-2024
- Inferring the basal sliding coefficient field for the Stokes ice sheet model under rheological uncertainty O. Babaniyi et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1731-2021
- Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method R. Greve et al. 10.1017/jog.2023.41
- Updates on Model Hierarchies for Understanding and Simulating the Climate System: A Focus on Data‐Informed Methods and Climate Change Impacts L. Mansfield et al. 10.1029/2023MS003715
- Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise T. Edwards et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y
- A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners R. van de Wal et al. 10.1029/2022EF002751
- Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data A. Wernecke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-1459-2020
- Prediction of Snowmelt Days Using Binary Logistic Regression in the Umbria-Marche Apennines (Central Italy) M. Gentilucci & G. Pambianchi 10.3390/w14091495
- A hybrid deep neural operator/finite element method for ice-sheet modeling Q. He et al. 10.1016/j.jcp.2023.112428
- Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years J. Van Breedam et al. 10.5194/esd-11-953-2020
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 25 Apr 2024
Short summary
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions.
Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to...
