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Volume 9, issue 3
The Cryosphere, 9, 945–956, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 9, 945–956, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-945-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 07 May 2015

Research article | 07 May 2015

Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

C. Lang et al.
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Belleflamme, A., Fettweis, X., Lang, C., and Erpicum, M.: Current and future atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa over Greenland simulated by the CMIP3 and CMIP5 global models, Clim. Dynam., 4, 2061–2080, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1538-2, 2012.
Day, J. J., Bamber, J. L., Valdes, P. J., and Kohler, J.: The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard, The Cryosphere, 6, 35–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-35-2012, 2012.
Dowdeswell, J. A., Benham, T. J., Strozzi, T., and Hagen, J. O.: Iceberg calving flux and mass balance of the Austfonna ice cap on Nordaustlandet, Svalbard, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F03022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JF000905, 2008.
Etzelmüller, B., Schuler, T. V., Isaksen, K., Christiansen, H. H., Farbrot, H., and Benestad, R.: Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century, The Cryosphere, 5, 67–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-67-2011, 2011.
Fettweis, X., Franco, B., Tedesco, M., van Angelen, J. H., Lenaerts, J. T. M., van den Broeke, M. R., and Gallée, H.: Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR, The Cryosphere, 7, 469–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-469-2013, 2013.
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We simulated the 21st century Svalbard SMB with the regional model MAR (RCP8.5 scenario). Melt is projected to increase gently up to 2050 and then dramatically increase, with a larger increase in the south of the archipelago. This difference is due to larger ice albedo decrease in the south causing larger increase of absorbed solar radiation. The ablation area is projected to disappear over the entire Svalbard by 2085. The SMB decrease compared to present is projected to contribute 7mm to SLR.
We simulated the 21st century Svalbard SMB with the regional model MAR (RCP8.5 scenario). Melt...
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