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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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TC | Volume 13, issue 4
The Cryosphere, 13, 1073–1088, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1073-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 13, 1073–1088, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1073-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 Apr 2019

Research article | 03 Apr 2019

Benchmark seasonal prediction skill estimates based on regional indices

John E. Walsh et al.
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Latest update: 15 Dec 2019
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Short summary
Persistence-based statistical forecasts of a Beaufort Sea ice severity index as well as September pan-Arctic ice extent show significant statistical skill out to several seasons when the data include the trend. However, this apparent skill largely vanishes when the trends are removed from the data. This finding is consistent with the notion of a springtime “predictability barrier” that has been found in sea ice forecasts based on more sophisticated methods.
Persistence-based statistical forecasts of a Beaufort Sea ice severity index as well as...
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