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The Cryosphere An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 9, issue 6
The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
The Cryosphere, 9, 2429–2446, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 21 Dec 2015

Research article | 21 Dec 2015

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

D. N. Goldberg et al.
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Arthern, R. J.: Exploring the use of transformation group priors and the method of maximum relative entropy for Bayesian glaciological inversions, J. Glaciol., 61, 947–962, https://doi.org/10.3189/2015JoG15J050, 2015.
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Blair, B. and Hofton, M.: IceBridge LVIS L2 Geolocated Surface Elevation Product, v1, http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/icebridge/ilvis2/ (last access: December 2012), 2010.
Cuffey, K. and Paterson, W. S. B.: The Physics of Glaciers, 4th Edn., Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford, 2010.
Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Favier, L., Zwinger, T., and le Meur, E.: Impact of bedrock description on modeling ice sheet dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048892, 2011.
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Short summary
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface elevation and velocity, a novel procedure in glaciology and in particular for an ice stream with a dynamic grounding line. We show this procedure gives a level of confidence in model projections that cannot be achieved through more commonly used glaciological data assimilation methods. We show that Smith Glacier is in a state of retreat regardless of climatic forcing for the next several decades.
We calibrate a time-dependent ice model through optimal fit to transient observations of surface...
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